The Defence Board on three broad assumptions

Govern, it forecast. It is in application of the famous maxim that the defence is currently studying several scenarios for its next triennial budget 2011-2013, for the cuts that will require Matignon in respect of global efforts for the reduction of public deficits. Two weeks ago, François Fillon announced a freeze on expenditures of the State over the period ("zero value" in technocratic jargon), to cover the increase in the burden of debt.

The framing is to decline Department by Department, but the armed forces - first investor in State n ' were not expected to receive their letter ceiling, expected mid-June, to reflect. Result of the thinking: between 2 and 3 billion euros of savings to find overlapping on the period in the best of cases, 4.8 billion in the worst, according to our information. "There are several scenarios in the study." "But in all cases, it will be underdone," confesses close source of discussion.

The Defence Board on three broad assumptions. The first, which no one believes more, table on a maintenance of the financial resources provided by the law of military programming 2009-2014. Be roughly 30 billion per year excluding pensions. "The armed forces should participate in the struggle against public deficits", recognized Friday Hervé Morin, on "Jeanne d'Arc", by putting forward the three exceptional fiscal years which came from his troops (not counting the recovery plan). At the other end of the spectrum, the worst case scenario is the strict application of the General framing arrested by François Fillon. These are then 4.8 billion that would sever the Act of programming: the never-seen so shortly after the vote by the Parliament of a LPM! Between the two, a median scenario digit between 2 and 3 billion savings to find, what remains very hard to swallow.

Difficult choices

From the reflections of the staff of the Directorate-General for armaments (DGA), the Secretariat-General for administration, and the Office of the Minister, all these quantifications were obviously no engaging value at this stage. It is too early to know precisely the effort that Matignon will ask the defence. As the revenues exceptional, delayed but still expected from the sale of barracks and some Telecom frequencies, can soften the sacrifices (in theory, it is 2 billion in cash). Similarly, the Hotel de Brienne may play on debt provider - in clear lengthening the time of payment of a few days - to save cash, even pay interest. Nevertheless. These calculations in advance are of course very useful to see how absorb as much savings without calling into question the spirit of the white paper of defence and national security of 2008 which puts priority on the modernization of the equipment of the forces.

Hervé Morin, which would normally hold a meeting with his top lieutenants at the weekend on the subject, so, before him, difficult choices. To make the pill less bitter as possible, it will naturally remind Bercy and Matignon that the white paper has been validated by a... Nicolas Sarkozy. But one thing seems certain to many observers of the sector: type in capital expenditure will not suffice. The armed forces should then provide more than 54.000 deletions of posts imposed by the white paper.