We have seen positive signs in many areas

Is the US recovery really meet Doubts began to creep on the markets in the wake of the publication of a series of disappointing indicators across the Atlantic. According to the latest survey published yesterday, ADP which often foreshadows the monthly index of unemployment, private enterprises have created only 13,000 jobs in June (against a forecast of 60.000). And according to the latest data from the Conference Board, published Monday, the index of consumer confidence sharply dropped in June (to 52.9 from 62.7 in May), after three months of consecutive increases. Although economists remain divided on these risks of slowdown, the impact of the situation of employment on the morale of the household and the end of the companies restock policy raised increasing doubts about the strength of the recovery.

"Headwinds".

"We have seen positive signs in many areas." "Unfortunately, because of the difficulties observed in Europe, we are confronted to contrary winds and a certain nervousness on the part of markets", acknowledged Monday Barack Obama, at the end of a meeting with the President of the Federal Reserve (Fed), Ben Bernanke. The US President is thus echo the concerns expressed by the Fed's Monetary Committee, at its last meeting, the negative impact of the crisis of European debt on the American recovery. Goldman Sachs estimates, the "European crisis" on us growth could lead to a negative impact of 0.2 to a maximum of 1.9 of GDP (in the case of "severe scenario"). But concerns about the strength of the recovery are not limited to the effect of the crisis in Europe on exports and the rate differentials ("credit spreads").

"(The most likely is that there is a slowdown in growth in the short term, to 1.5 in the second half on an annual basis), with a reacceleration in 2011", said Jan Hatzius, US Chief Economist of Goldman Sachs. For 2011, its forecast of growth, at 2.5, remaining nevertheless lower than that of the consensus of economists (3.1), before the downward revision of GDP, from 3 to 2.7 in the first quarter, announced June 25 by the Department of Commerce.

"The risks of deflation increase, even if it is not our central scenario and we estimate 20 the risk of a recurrence of the ("double dip") growth", says Jan Hatzius. Despite a slight recovery of consumption, he charged the net slowdown in the economy in the second half at the end of the cycle of the companies restock who doped the growth so far. Out of stocks, the growth in final domestic demand should be 1.5 in the second half.

"Headwinds" remain the situation of the housing market and the impact of budgetary restrictions.

Low growth

All American economists are not as pessimistic on growth in the second half. Larry Kantor, remarked of Barclays Capital research, it should not be "too difficult" to reach 4 growth in the third quarter. There is a beginning of significant improvement on the front of the consumption of households and even on the labour market, not to mention the level of investment by companies whose growth will be in double digits in the next quarter", he said.

Even in this the most optimistic scenario at 4, greater than the consensus forecast, such a level of growth remain, however, well below the average of 7 in the three consecutive quarters in all "deep" U.S. recessions that took place between 1957 and 1982. According to the Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman, or voluntarism of the g-20 to accompany the growth, the threat of a "long depression" could even be realized.