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Our spots are based on stories and are worn by the VisualFor our part we are operational for a yearWhat is not displeasing to several stakeholdersThe report recommends instead that solutionl' one of his relatives when she learned her appointmentShould not draw hasty conclusions estimated the UMPBut the attractiveness of metals is not deniedSports rights TF1 will also limit its responses to two free channelsThe risk That major conferences are more returning to ParisAnd today he thinks have unearthed a new nugget"Sunny, but risk of relapse", headline this week "bloomberg businessweek" folder on the Outlook for the US economy in 2010. How America is going to recover from the worst recession since the 1930s is today - from today the object of all the conjecture. "Normally, after a strong recession, the rebound is very strong in the 7, but I think that it will be less than 4," said Ethan Harris, Chief Economist for the United States for Bank of America. It provides a 3.2 GDP year next to the United States (which is higher than the consensus, which is 2.6) and 4.4 in the rest of the world. Teams of Goldman Sachs, for their part, are aligned with 4.4 of global growth, but see a small 2.1 growth of GDP in the United States next year.
One of the reasons is that the support provided by the fiscal stimulus plan will be completed in 2010 and that, despite the measures recently voted to support employment (10 unemployment rate), it is unlikely that companies, which have experienced strong gains in productivity, quickly reopen valves. And as the industry is still in overcapacity, it is difficult to imagine that companies make significant investments. "The extraordinary level of overcapacity will, also, dispose of the recovery." "In the industry, the utilization rate is below 67," said Donald Kohn, Vice-Chairman of the Federal Reserve.
Growing your way the deficit and debt
According to him, the recovery will be moderate because if financial markets have stabilized, the securitization in the sectors that are not directly supported by the Central Bank and the Treasury is still very low. Which reduces access to the credit - that companies begin to compensate by issuing debt (1,000 billion in 2009), who go mainly to the consolidation of their balance sheets, are observers.
The most optimistic economists believe nevertheless that the profitability rate has increased during the crisis. They should be less hesitant to rebuild their stocks (the fall slowed in the third quarter). "The usual schema implies that the consumer will participate in the recovery." "Unfortunately, a typical recession is not caused by a massive correction in the housing market", observe the Mizuho Securities analysts. It has contributed to more evaporation of 1,400 billion of wealth and encouraged Americans to save again (5.8) pending stabilization of real estate, which has improved in recent months. Because credit constraints are always strong, that the tax increases are inevitable and will have to cover budget deficits and debt, "it is unlikely that consumers regain their as before spending habits", said Stephen Ricchiuto, Chief Economist with Mizuho Securities USA.
The point of resistance
Gold should be at least 4 growth to rapidly reduce the unemployment rate. This point of resistance becomes problematic for Obama administration, while the mid-term elections lie ahead for the fall. The Federal Reserve gave a range from 9.3 to 9.7 for the end of the year, but many economists continue to see the rate to maintain around 10 in 2010. This is why the Central Bank should not change its rate Directors (between 0 and 0.25) for another several months. "It is very difficult to find an economic justification for a tightening of monetary policy when inflation is 1 and unemployment is at 10," writes a note Jan Hatzius, Chief Economist at Goldman Sachs. Unlike many economists who believe that the Fed may raise rates as soon as the second half of next year, he saw no change in strategy before 2011.
