5 on average the day of their publication

The harvest of the publications is coming to an end in the United States. The last big wave sweeps this week, with 55 S & P 500 companies and one of the Dow Jones. Yesterday, Home Depot has published welcomed results, allowing to climb in the meeting in a market decline.

More generally, this season leads to optimism: the results of the fourth quarter have significantly exceeded the expectations of analysts. On the 422 companies published their accounts (1), almost three quarters (72) were better than forecasts and only 18 less well, according to data from Thomson Reuters. Significantly higher than historical averages proportions (respectively 61 and 21, since 1961).

This quarter could put a final point to a decline in the results registered for about two years (particularly since the third quarter of 2007). The & S P 500 companies should even display a breathtaking 213 growth with cumulative benefits of 161,9 billions of dollars, against 52 billion previously. Especially, revenue - examined with a magnifying glass over the past weeks - are planned increase ( 8 or 3 excluding the financial) and, for the first time since the third quarter of 2008. "The bulk of the crisis is past." "Return to the growth of turnover is something very positive," said Charles Dautresme, strategist at AXA IM.

However, it still seems too early for sand champagne. Thus, the flight deck of the benefits is to bind to base effects. The bond explained rather by results "extremely low" in the fourth quarter of 2008 by huge profits for those end 2009, noticed the analysts from Thomson Reuters.

Then, the increase is also related to the composition of the rating. The financial had much weighed on the fourth quarter of 2008 (with a loss, against a profit today). By removing this segment, profit growth would only 17. "The season is generally good: it shows that the recovery is confirmed, but with some caveats, summarizes Christian Parisot, an economist at Aurel.". The speeches of the companies remain fairly cautious on the Outlook for business and unit margin figures. And it is still difficult to measure the strength of the recovery and its spread to all sectors.

Sectoral differences

Indeed, the harvest of publications highlights of important sectoral differences. Six of the ten segments of the S & P 500 should see their results to improve. The segment of materials is called to register an increase of 203, followed by so-called consumer discretionary ( 154) and technology ( 51). Technology - which represents approximately 20 of the American rating - also stands for positive surprises. "The results and speeches have been exceptional," supports Christian Parisot. Conversely, the energy - including oil, and services to communities are at the bottom of the table on the change of the net profits (respectively-24 and 5), in relation to the developments on a year in oil and natural gas prices.

In any event, the season of publications has had an impact moderated on the stock exchange. If, on the last days, they have become increasingly importance, macroeconomics overall relegated to second publications.

Witness, the new decline on Wall Street yesterday, after indicators - including the consumer confidence - disappointing. According to Aurel S & P 100 calculations, companies having registered profits and lower than the consensus revenue fell 1.5 on average the day of their publication. Those who exceeded expectations were also shake 0.9... also in loss!