The crisis of the SPD is far more profound and old

How mobilize its reservoir of voters when there is no real perspective to seize power This is the question that Frank-Walter Steinmeier, the social democratic candidate for the Chancellery, did not meet five days of the legislative. The SPD is credited with about 25 of voting intentions: it would be his worst score since 1949.

The party has no option at its disposal to overthrow Angela Merkel. The Greens, with Gerhard Schröder governed seven years, can make only around 10 of the vote. The SPD ruled out any alliance with the radical left led by Oskar Lafontaine, the radical and unrealistic, program which rallies still more than 10 of the electorate. The unique scenario to conquer the Chancery would be an alliance with the Liberals of the FDP, as in the 1970s. But their leader, Guido Westerwelle, formally excluded it, occurring exclusively for a coalition with the Christian Democrats. To stay in business, the SPD can therefore only hope remain a great coalition "junior" partner.

How the SPD, which had collected 40.9 votes in 1998, could get this far There has much talk on the personality too weighted and technocratic candidate, who made his career in the wake of Gerhard Schröder without his mentor the prolixity or the taste of political combat. The crisis of the SPD is far more profound and old.

It is explained first by the balance sheet of the Red-Green coalition from 1998 to 2005. Contained social reforms in the agenda 2010 Gerhard Schröder, including Frank-Walter Steinmeier is one of the main architects, has lived as a true betrayal by labour and part of the voters. Those disappointed joined the Greens, the radical left or became abstaining. "Many remember Schröder as Chancellor of the managers," said Gero Neugebauer, a political scientist at the Freie Universität in Berlin.

Divorce consumed

In the grand coalition, the CDU Hatzair was much discussed, but the SPD lost its profile. The law on retirement at 67 years consumed the divorce with the unions. Steinmeier has tried a left turn and presented this year a very social program, promising to lower floor tax and to increase the ceiling rate. The SPD also wants to establish a minimum wage widespread, while the number of poor has increased in recent years. It also calls for an international tax on financial transactions. But with this orientation, the SPD has lost part of earned at the centre, voters without really left.

Then, what future for the SPD as "Volkspartei", party aimed at the entire population For Frank Baasner, the Director of the Franco-German Institute of Ludwigsburg, "the only chances of survival for the SPD, it is the opposition or the responsibility of the business, not the role of junior in the great coalition."

Everyone in the staff of the SPD, understood not that ear. Peer Steinbrück, Minister of finance, said that a new grand coalition "will not be a disaster."Steinmeier candidate appeared very close to the Chancellor at their "TV duel", quickly reclassified "Duo" by the media. The German press doubt much, in any case, that a new alliance of the SPD with the conservatives could last four years.