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1 growth of GDP in the United States next yearOur spots are based on stories and are worn by the VisualFor our part we are operational for a yearWhat is not displeasing to several stakeholdersThe report recommends instead that solutionl' one of his relatives when she learned her appointmentShould not draw hasty conclusions estimated the UMPBut the attractiveness of metals is not deniedSports rights TF1 will also limit its responses to two free channelsThe risk That major conferences are more returning to ParisThe day where the rest of the world will think that it is the only one who can save the planet, Barack Obama can finally breathe. Deeply. Severing his trip to Oslo - where it will be officially awarded his Nobel Prize for peace - its participation in the Copenhagen climate conference, today the US President has taken a political risk. But it is voluntarily limited risk. Already facing a recession unprecedented since the great depression and a record unemployment rate, "nobélisé" Obama was already strong on his own land. Despite the excitement, or even the naïve optimism, Crusaders in the fight against global warming, a priority in Copenhagen will be first and above all to preserve his "political capital" not to exposing himself to the failure of an unreasonable goal.
"Paris welcomes this decision which reflects the importance attached by the United States to the success of this Conference on the climate", openly welcomed the Elysee, the announcement of the postponement of the visit of Barack Obama in Copenhagen, originally scheduled on 9 December, to participate in the conclusion of the work of the 17 and 18 December. It is barely if Europeans do not insufferable to indirect ownership of this "gesture of goodwill" which enhances the chances of reaching an agreement policy. In reality, the decisions of China and the India to announce quantified objectives for the reduction of "carbon intensity" seem to have more weighed in the balance. The decision of the US President to travel to Copenhagen late suggests that the broad outlines of a compromise are virtually acquired, as seems to suggest the leak on the "Danish proposal". In all cases, a visit "in solo" Barack Obama would have given the worrying signal to a form of discards. All the more disconcerting that the Democratic President, an advocate for renewable energy, did everything to show its willingness to break with the eight years of notorious indifference of the era Bush the climate question so far.
From there to claim victory, there is a not yet difficult to cross. First, because the disproportionate media impact of the so-called "Climategate", the case "e-mails pirated" from the University of East Anglia-, brandi as a proof of a scientific conspiracy the skeptics of global warming and Saudi Arabia, illustrates the extent of the psychological resistance to the fight against climate change across the Atlantic. Especially when the Fox News channel and the libertarian Cato Institute think-tank took care to stir up the drum of the conspiracy blogs. But also and mainly because that the "divine surprise" encrypted objective of the 17 reduction of CO2 emissions (relative to the level of 2005 and by 2020) formalized by Barack Obama on November 26, is not really one.
Presented by the Councillor for the environment of the White House, Carol Browner, as "ambitious", the objective of the 17 corresponds to the low range of the texts of compromise in negotiations at the Conference. In addition, reported at the level of 1990 which serves as a reference to the Europeans, it represents just a reduction of 3 to 4, against a target of 20 over the same period for the European Union. For the expert us Adele Morris of the Brookings Institution, who participated in the negotiations of the "non-accord" in the Hague in November 2000, the priority of Barack Obama is mainly to avoid the repetition of the disastrous precedent of the Kyoto Protocol, signed in November 1998 by Al Gore but never ratified by Congress. Because of the admission of Senator John Kerry, it is not said that the US Senate endorses the objective of 17 in the spring.
"Force want to give lessons of morality without understanding the political constraints on the American President, Europeans may find themselves back on the wall as in the Hague in 2000", said Adele Morris. Despite the media drum which he received the notice final "history" of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) on the hazardousness of emissions of CO2, rendered on December 7, is a symbolic expected formality. May just serve as a tactical Stinger for internal use to the Senate.
Do not overestimate the force of persuasion of Barack Obama - without underestimating its internal political constraints - would paradoxically be the best assurance of a "divine surprise" in Copenhagen.
