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The cost reduction planSame caution regarding financial also journals forecasts downwardThey are also much more healthy financiallyPataquès Government on the reform of the post2 times 2007 are higher than the market recognizesAnd the need for a mobile is a little lessChallenge to the transfer of businesses and their needsUnion attempts indeed never lasted longThe best revolutions are most often changesBut these initiatives eventually bear fruitSpace is also rare in the sector RaveziesThe collapse was spectacular. London, the price of a barrel of brent from the North Sea is blithely past under the threshold of 80 dollars Friday at 74,09 dollars, a decline of 8.57 dollars per report during the previous day. New York, "light sweet crude" oil for delivery in November was exchanged at the same time to 77,70 dollars, down from $ 8.89. Since its historical records from July to 147 dollars, the price of crude has lost approximately 50 of its value, spraying Friday the psychological threshold of $ 80.
Why such a slump Obviously, the stall of the course is in the first place to the financial crisis and its impact on global growth. After the publication by the IMF of a forecast of growth in Europe and the United States, the international agency in Bern energy (IEA) has revised downward its forecast for global oil demand. It should be 87.2 million barrels per day in 2009, a reduction of Interamericano barrels from the previous estimate. In total, the market should see growth of just 0.5 in 2008 and 0.8 next year. According to the IEA, the application of the OECD countries is expected to decline of 2.2 in 2008 and 1.3 in 2009. This collapse is already important to the United States, where oil consumption has fallen by more than 7 in September, according to Energy Intelligence Briefing.
IEA has nevertheless left unchanged its forecast of demand for emerging-market countries. Despite the contraction of exports to Europe and the United States, China should indeed maintain a growth of more than 9 according to the IMF, which will mechanically support the demand for oil in the country.
The dizzying fall in the barrel may be surprising, because it is combined with a global supply of oil less than expectations. It declined by 1 million barrels per day in September, after the hurricanes in the Gulf of the Mexico and Azerbaijan production downtime.
In fact, it was the collapse of financial markets and the alienation of banks to investment and "hedge funds" for the sector of raw materials which resulted in such a collapse. "Many funds have taken positions in these markets that they are more able to fund," it says in Natixis. "The widespread drying of credit reduced the liquidity of the oil market, which makes the course very volatile", considers the IEA in its report.
In this context, OPEC decided to hold an emergency meeting in Vienna November 18 next to the oil market situation. But what exactly the impact of a slight decrease in production in an also tense environment "Since 1992, the interventions of OPEC to maintain prices have always had some success." "There are only two exceptions: in 1998 and 2001, when global growth is was widely slowed", said Michael Lewis, analyst materials first at Deutsche Bank in London.
For the countries of the G8, a reduction in OPEC production would fall more than bad. Friday, the head of the British Government, Gordon Brown, already expressed "concern" to the idea, adding that it would be "bad for the world economy."
