All economists agree the Poland is first lucky

But how does While 2009 is called to stay an annus horribilis for the economic world, and in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEEC), the Poland is poised to achieve a unique performance in the European Union: understanding economic expansion. Long perceived as the poor students in the region, because of more moderate growth that that of their neighbours, the Poles enjoyed their revenge, last week, when the "Polish Davos" organized in the town of Krynica. Each round table of the economic forum, the same message was dragged: talk about "Eastern Europe" as a homogeneous economic area is an oxymoron. Implication: Please do not mix the good grain (Poland, Czech Republic) from the chaff (Baltic and Hungary in the first place).

All economists agree: the Poland is first lucky. It owes much to its size and its 38 million inhabitants that ensures an internal market without comparison with other countries of the East. And which make it a country diverse economically, when many others had to opt for specialization, veering head-on the crisis. The Slovakia knows something, she discovered too dependent on the automotive industry.

Prudent cockpit

But the growth of 1 expected by Brussels in 2009 seems also to prudence of economic piloting of the country in recent years. For Krzysztof Rybinski, one of the leading Polish economists, "the Poland owes much to the financial supervision authorities which strongly limited the use of credit in foreign currency". At the time, in all CEECs, fashion was loans in euros or Swiss francs. Full overheating, these countries had interest rates high, hence the lure in foreign currency foreign, less expensive loans. The crisis changed everything: local currencies have collapsed, and the value of payments in foreign currency has soared mechanically. At the time, Polish caution him was worth "of the regular criticism", remembers Krzysztof Rybinski. In retrospect, it appears to have been beneficial because it has preserved finance Polish households and businesses. This is what confirms Simon Quijano-Evans, who heads the economic studies, Credit Agricole Cheuvreux in Vienna: "like many, I had not anticipated such resistance from the Polish economy because I had underestimated the consumption of households, which has remarkably stood with a low debt in foreign currency."

Today, the financial system is not oversized: Andrszej Kopyrski, one of the leaders of the Bank Pekao in Poland, note that "the business loans represent only 20 of GDP. A situation which must also moderation banks: Peter tills, who heads the operations of Deutsche Bank in Eastern Europe, notes that "the amount of loans is on average equivalent to the level of deposits in banks, which is a unique case in the region."

Finally, considers Slawomir Majman, President of the Agency for the promotion of foreign investment, Poland, investors have discovered, at the height of the storm, that the Poland "has a unique asset in the region: economic stability." On the first seven months of the year, direct investment in the country amounted to 70 of the amount over the same period of 2008, a good result in the current context.

Black dots

All is not rosy for as much. The business credit is down, prompting the Central Bank to announce, last week, support measures. On the budget plan, the widening of the deficit concerns markets. And the rising unemployment threatens to finally fail consumption. In the end, yield to triumphalism would be a mistake. As summarised in the Romanian economist Daniel Daianu, "in Poland as elsewhere in the region, we know well that the reign of easy money is finished." "And that our economic model will necessarily have to change."