Suddenly the operators took their profit

Yesterday, "addicted" to the statistics were the angels. It was a firework, a flood of figures of all kinds. In the United States, economists have raised the consumption expenditure of households, the index measuring the price associated with them (PCE), industrial orders in July, and the index PMI in Chicago for August, which are proven to be broadly in line with expectations. In Europe, they are are délectés inflation ( 2.3) and consumer ( 1.1 points) confidence index in the euro area.

They nonetheless focused their attention on the meeting of the Committee on monetary policy of the European Central Bank (see page 8). As they waited, it was a non-event in the gesture. The venerable institution based in Frankfurt has left interest rates unchanged, at 3. Last month, she had pointed to a quarter of a point. Since the beginning of his campaign of monetary tightening in December 2005, marked, since, by four increases of 0.25, it has tended to play this alternation. An "accommodative" policy in a way, in the words of its President, Jean-Claude Trichet.

Relaxing on the bond

The decision of the status quo and the speech that followed however destabilised the euro which, after a burst, won against the other currencies. As a first step, the prospect of a rise in rates by the ECB in October had planned it to 1,2879 dollar but taken momentum and volume accompanying him were not enough to cross the threshold of 1,2880 dollar. Suddenly, the operators took their profit.

A correction accentuated when they were informed of the Chicago PMI index, which declined from 57.9 to 57.1 points but that was still slightly higher than expectations. Is the publication on Friday, the monthly report on employment in the United States. After the disappointment of last month, foreign exchange dealers are willing to bet that it will be better, allowing the greenback. At the time, the euro is back to 1,2801 dollar. An accident which does not call into question the scenario of a weakening of the dollar in the medium term.

On European bond markets, the trigger was last. 10-Year OAT yields and the German Bund indeed declined 3 basis points, respectively to 3,765 and 3,764.

But these stalls appear to be temporary. In his speech of après-réunion, Jean-Claude Trichet did not exclude resort again to the weapon of rates, and this likely starting October 5, date of the next meeting of the monetary policy Committee. The word "vigilance" returned many times in his speech. "We are in a position of great vigilance on inflationary risks", he repeated at the press conference.

Protectionist pressures

The President of the ECB is wary of global imbalances and protectionist pressures. He especially fear that the oil boom is spread across of the compartments of the economy and affects, among other things, salaries and indirect taxes. Observers expect therefore two additional increases in the rate of a quarter of a point by end 2006.

Because, unlike the US, Europe is not in the phase of economic slowdown. It is a low but constant growth. According to Jean-Claude Trichet, eurozone gross domestic product grew by 0.9 in the second quarter from the first. With this observation, the ECB felt assured to meet its expectations of growth.

It could reach 2.5 in 2007 and 2.1 in 2007. Two months ago, it was only 2.1 and 1.8. Fiscal year for inflation. Projections give an increase of 2.4 in 2006 and 2.3 in 2007. Step rise but the figures that remain higher than the target that set the ECB for the medium term, i.e. 2. The monetary break appears actually not for now.