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All the experts do not share this relatively optimisticIn the United States also rates were slightlyWorkforce thus climbed to 54 people todayThe thermometer already accuses the 28 CBut in the end very few original scenes were cutOn the MTN their value was at the end of second quarter 59It is also more than 30 of the votes at the IMFThe Directorate General of tax published end January 2006 1 a statement drawing the consequences of a judgment of the Court of justice of the European communities in October 2005 2According to Euronext not likely before OctoberThe nomest already easy to understand EnglishThe second season of the drama of the "stress tests" Europeans experienced yesterday a new tasty episode. The Committee of European supervisors (CEBS) was, according to concurrent information, specify the methodology of these new tests, including the scenarios taken into account in the module on sovereign shocks. This module was added late June to the battery of tests already initiated to meet the concern of the markets on the Greek crisis and its possible contamination to other indebted economies.
But it took until the evening for specifics of CEBS and the list of banks involved in the exercise and the confirmation of the date of July 23 for their publication "on an aggregate basis, and individual". They will finally be 91 to be this year tested the test of resistance against only 22 last year. The choice has focused not only on major cross-border institutions, but also institutions with a key on their domestic market position. "In each Member State, the sample was built, by decreasing size, to cover at least 50 of the national banking sector in total per asset", explains CEBS in its release. Overall, 91 banks cover 65 of the banking sector of the Union. The banks being tested on a consolidated basis, their subsidiaries in other European countries are not twice.
Methodology fuzzy
Of the total, it is by far the Spain with the concerned institutions, 27 more, ranging from the largest banks (Santander, BBVA, etc.) of the country in a much more modest savings. The real estate crisis and fears about the Spanish economy had, admittedly, pushed the Spanish authorities to play the transparency on its banking sector. The Germany, then, has 14 schools, including the seven Landesbanken, whose portfolios of real estate credit or toxic assets may require new corrections. In other countries, the list is shorter, as a result of the largest banking concentration. Thus, in six Greece banks will pass the tests, five in Italy and four in Great Britain and France (BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole, BPCE, Société Générale).
On the methodology of tests, CEBS remains relatively little disert. He recalled their goal: "assessing the overall strength of the European banking sector and the ability of banks to absorb a possible future shock on the credit and market risks, including sovereign shock, and assess their current dependence on public support measures". It is not "forecast", held to remind regulators, but a "analysis to help determine the own funds of banks needs."
The scenarios will include a set of macroeconomic parameters (GDP, unemployment, inflation) "differentiated for the Member States, other European countries and the United States." Overall, the stress scenario envisages a "deviation from 3 points of GDP compared with the forecast of the Union on a horizon of two years." "The sovereign shock represents a deterioration in conditions similar to that of May 2010 market".
According to Bloomberg and Reuters, regulators have made the assumption of a valuation haircut of 16 to 17 on Greek sovereign bonds. For the France, it should be 0.7, while the obligations of the German State will not "stressed."
